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In January 2026, the GTA recorded 3,082 home sales, down about 19.3 % year-over-year, reflecting continued cautious buyer sentiment early this year.
The MLS average selling price dipped below $1 million (around $973,289) — the first time since 2021.
Condo prices — a key segment of the GTA market — saw steeper declines, with average condo sale prices around ~$605 K, down nearly 10 % year-over-year.
What this means for buyers:
Affordability has improved compared with the peak years, with negotiated sale prices often below asking values.
Inventory remains elevated, so buyers generally have more choice and greater negotiation power than during tighter markets.
Detached, townhouse, and condo segments are all showing price corrections, giving buyers opportunities across property types — though recovery timing varies by segment and neighbourhood.
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) forecasts 60,000–70,000 total GTA home sales in 2026, with average prices expected between about $1 million and $1.03 million — which suggests relatively stable or slightly lower prices in early 2026 before any late-year tightening.
Buyer confidence is tentative: only an estimated 22 % of GTA households say they intend to buy in 2026 — down from last year — despite improved affordability.
New home sales (especially pre-construction) remain very weak, particularly in the condo segment, which may limit future supply and support price stabilization later in the year.
Takeaway for Buyers:
▪ The early 2026 market continues to favour buyers in many segments — especially condos — due to slower transactions and excess inventory.
▪ However, neighbourhoods and property types differ: well-located detached homes may hold value better, while entry-level condos and townhouses tend to show larger price adjustments.
Rental conditions in the GTA have continued to soften or stabilize, with average asking rents generally lower than peak levels. For example, average unfurnished one-bedroom rents in Toronto were around ~$1,993/month in January 2026, down year-over-year.
Many markets outside core Toronto have seen even bigger corrections, with double-digit declines in some suburbs.
Vacancy rates are broadly higher than in recent years, providing renters with more options and more negotiating power — reversing the ultra-tight conditions of the 2020–2023 period.
Rental supply has expanded due to new purpose-built apartments coming online and slower household formation (partly tied to changes in immigration patterns), which pushes vacancy rates upward and moderates rent growth.
Condo rentals — traditionally strong in downtown Toronto — still show tighter availability than purpose-built rentals, but rents here are also softer than a few years ago.
Takeaway for Renters:
▪ Renters generally have more options and better leverage than they have had in years; competition among landlords can lead to incentives or flexibility.
▪ Suburban and non-core rental markets often have even lower rents, though this can come with trade-offs in commute or amenities.
Buyers
Elevated inventory and lower prices are creating opportunities, especially for first-time and move-up buyers.
Cautious consumer confidence and economic uncertainty are slowing sales activity, keeping markets balanced or slightly buyer-leaning in many segments.
Renters
Rental markets remain more tenant-friendly, with softer rents and higher vacancies.
New supply — especially purpose-built units — is giving renters leverage and averaging down regional rent pressures.
Looking Ahead:
As the GTA transitions into peak spring listing season, markets could heat up somewhat, but fundamentals suggest continued choice and leverage for buyers and renters through at least the first half of 2026.